Flat exposure
A clean baseline helps separate the wheel from the progression.
What it describes
Flat exposure is useful as an experimental baseline because it removes changes in size from a comparison. It does not make roulette favourable. It makes it easier to identify which part of a simulated result comes from the underlying outcome distribution.
Formula & principle
B(n) = $10
The same fixed amount on every round. There is no progression after either a win or a loss.
B(n) is one stake. On the left, the counter sums all losing stakes with a minus sign and freezes after round 25. On the right, all 25 results are watched without a stake. One $10 stake is then placed for round 26. Its payout follows the selected target: for an even-money bet, $20 returned means $10 stake plus $10 profit. Other targets use their own payout rules.
Same pattern. Different starting points.
A deliberately constructed series: 25 × No Dozen 1, then a matching result at 26. The end is known in this demo only.
Two different snapshots: the left freezes accumulated losses after 25 stakes, before the break. The right skips all 25 rounds, places one $10 stake before round 26, and shows its winning payout, including the returned stake. Net profit is shown separately. This is a selected winning example with a predetermined break, not an equal-length profit comparison.
Without Winnary
Starts at round 1
Waiting for this track
With Winnary
Starts at round 26
Waiting for this track
Model: Constant one-unit exposure. The left follows the strategy throughout the losing series. “With Winnary” shows only one initial $10 stake after 25 observed results; there is no earlier loss or stake progression in that column. It is not a measured product result. The Legendary label is illustrative, not a calculated rarity.
Fewer stakes mean less accumulated exposure in this selected sequence. A stake placed after round 25 has no better next-spin odds, and the pattern could continue beyond 26. This model assumes unlimited funds and no table limits. The break is observed after settlement; it cannot cancel a stake already placed. Winnary cannot enforce a loss limit at an external table. Every losing stake is added to the running loss. In the single-stake example, payout includes the returned stake; net profit subtracts that stake. Coverage payouts also account for losing parts of a split allocation. If the round-1 track continued through the same break at round 26, its net would be -$230; that final stake would be $10. The later start does not improve next-spin odds.
Demo ready. Both examples use the same predetermined results.
What the mathematics says
Comparisons must still use a consistent denominator. A result per session can differ from a result per unit of total exposure because systems generate different amounts of turnover. Both measures can be informative if clearly labelled.
How to read the evidence
The baseline also helps detect presentation bias. If a complex method appears superior only after its worst sessions are removed, the result is not a fair comparison. Winnary’s descriptive rankings do not claim to establish an advantageous exposure policy.
Flat exposure: without and with Winnary
This compares the information available, not measured winnings or losses.
| Without Winnary | With Winnary |
|---|---|
| A steady amount can feel safe even when total exposure keeps accumulating. | See a described pattern without treating each observation as an instruction to participate. Watching alone requires no stake. |
What does not change. A rarity label does not reduce the house edge or measure a person’s total exposure.
Roulette predictor claims: what evidence matters? ↗Where Winnary fits
Winnary is a roulette analyser that organises observations. Rarity labels and rankings are descriptive. They are not a prediction of the next spin, evidence of a profitable system or a recommendation to act.
Read about the analyser ↗